Off-Year Predictions

I guess we’ve got an election coming up, so it’s time to make some predictions. Here are mine:

  • GOP gains 60+ seats in the House.
  • Dems hold the Senate 51/49 or 50/50 w/ Biden.

The longer-term future is, naturally, harder to predict. I think that Obama could undergo a truly epic meltdown, for at least two reasons:

  • I think he’s an ideologue who will prove unwilling to “triangulate”. The majority of the electorate is not only unhappy with his policies, they’re unhappy that their unhappiness is being ignored. Two more years of attempts to force through unpopular policies (using executive branch powers, e.g., the EPA cooking up its own version of cap-n-trade) could result in a 2012 wave that dwarfs 2010.
  • A lot of Obama’s personal popularity seems based on his “first-class temperament”. The thing is, it’s easy to appear cool and poised when you’re winning, and when the winds are at your back. I don’t believe that Obama is someone who’s been told “no” a whole lot in his life, and I don’t think he’s going to handle it well if and when a hostile Congress does just that.

We shall see what we shall see.

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